FIIs will return, see Sensex at 23000 by year-end: Ambit

The news headline that I have kept as title here was published in one of our countries very prominent website.It was shocking to read it, why do analysts give out such views? Are they ignorant or do they not have the knowledge? I don't know if I am taking a contrarian call, but, markets are not in a hurry to reach any kind of new high's atleast for another year to come.

We have a slew of uncertainties lined up ahead, US economy is powering up, returns on their assets are increasing, why will the FII's return to leave alone India, even Asia. The person who gave this comment was a fundamental analyst. Fundamentals in the last quarter was so pathetic that less than 1% of the listed companies have given above 25% growth in both their sales and earnings. When the companies are struggling to maintain sales, how will they grow their bottom line? Will they play the manner INFY played, by doing treasury operations?

Companies like Infy and Reliance which are sitting on huge cash piles, don't have confidence in themselves to deploy their funds in either their business or give it back to shareholders and some companies are struggling to grow their sales as the consumption pattern of the Indian public have come down. Increase in our currency will have a string of effects, fuel price is likely to climb up faster than anyone could think off. Which will have a chain effect on the whole economy. Coming elections are already a big uncertainty, the present govt may not come to power, but, is there someone who could have such super control or determination which can sky rocket our economy?

These kind of analyst views put the common investor into such a big trap that, which they are always willing to fall and burn themselves often. Crowd always wants positive news and there are a slew of journalists and media people who feed them what they require. Expecting some one to tell what you want, is in itself a insecurity. When there is insecurity, get out and think without the burden of holding a losing position.

There are very clear indications that we will have a prolonged sideways pattern in the market, which will skin out weak hands. Bring in so much fear in those lazy investors who have not heeded to repeated warnings of weakness, well in advance, way back in mid May 2013. Take the rallies as the opportunities to liquidate your positions and be in cash. Take a holiday from the markets if you want to, from the profits, if you had made any.

Get back when the storm settles to make loads of cash from a market that will be poised to rally and give real great returns. With every rise, markets bring in more greedy people into it, who are left to lurch when the fall comes eventually.

Only smart money wins always, its time to be short and showl truck loads of cash laughing all the way to your banks, if you are not equiped to play the game this way, it is better to watch the fun from the sidelines.