Monday, April 26, 2010

Shallow moves on the NIFTY

NIFTY gave a small gain and an up close today. While there is dwindling volume, which has been reduced by 33% compared to that on Thursday and Friday. As daily chart did not have bearish divergence on the previous weakness, there was not much down fall seen. The current move a close above 5360 on the daily chart will give bearish divergence and that would add to the Weekly divergence and shorts would get prominent.

The present resistance for NIFTY is at 5370-390 levels. Hold intraday long positions for reversal. On both daily and weekly turning bearish will there be a big bear move? A question most prominent in many market participants' minds. The answer is the picture at present does not seem so. There is likely to be small bearish moves and then the index would try moving up again. As results start coming out we find that the performance in robust.

Hence this bullish move is likely to continue, but with a slow pace. Why in slow pace? Many sectors have gone either neutral or weaker on performance to the index. While some big players in the market have started mirroring their Index performance, there are some Industry groups which are very strong even now and the stocks of those groups are aiming for big gains. This will keep the index moving up while the weaker heavy weights would keep pulling it down. Not knowing which direction to give predominance to, the Index will hold sideways pattern.

BASIC MATERIALS Sector gave a very strong move up today with an above 2% gains. Most of the Industry groups in this index were gainers, lead by Aluminum, Pig & Sponge Iron, Mining minerals and Metals etc., FINANCIAL Sector followed 2nd in the gainers list today, but with minimal gains.

Hospital Industry was the weakest, while the Weekly chart of this industry is strong; the outperformer in this Industry group is FORTIS. We have already traded long on this stock, which is trailing today. On the stop getting triggered, wait for re-entry, there is a sure winning trade here. If the stock holds on the initial stop, next move up will see this stock reach target of 192.50.

APOLLO HOSPITALS is a strong stock, add to watch list, wait for an uptick to trade long.

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