Poised to reach 4950 and beyond.

NIFTY gave a fifth consecutive lower low and a lower close. It fell a shade low of 4950 support. Daily charts have gained into a clear bearish trend. Value zone for today is at 5183, one may look to short on a down tick after NIFTY reaches value zone for a target 4950 and beyond. Continued global weakness assures neat profit on the short trades.

Hourly charts have retraced good bullish divergence on both MACD lines and MACD Histogram. There would either be a sideways pattern or a bull move to close to daily value zone of 5185.

The bear onslaught of the past week bears its brunt the most on the basic materials Sector. BASIC MATERIALS has witnessed close to a 10% fall in its index value. There are 4 Industry groups which have registered double digit weakness, above 10%. Two of the double digit losers, viz., Pig and Sponge Iron Industry and Mining Minerals Industry come into the BASIC INDUSTRIES Sector. Hence this major fall in this index. JINDAL STEEL and STERLITE have lost more than 10% in a single week.

The bull move which took 3 months has been lost in 1 week. This is the power of the bears. Bulls climb by the stairs, while bears jump out of the window. This adage proves true every time there is a bear market.

INDUSTRIALS Sector followed the weakness with a 7.5% fall on its Index. ABB which came to sell last week at 774 levels has gained more than 100 points on its short position with its closing price on Friday.

HEALTHCARE and ENERGY Sectors though were losers, have managed with a less than 1% fall on their respective Indices. A correction on Crude prices has reflected well for the refiners, combined with this was the Supreme Court ruling on RELIANCE, which closed positive. All the refining stocks have registered good gains. BPCL, HINDPETRO and the likes in our recommendation have done well.

Why is HEALTHCARE doing well? It is this Sector that bruises the wounds. It is cyclic, that in a recession the only Sector to keep its head above water will be HEALTHCARE. This will be followed by CONSUMER GOODS Sector.

CONSUMER GOODS Sector stayed 3^rd from top this week confirming the cyclic pattern. Auto Cars and Jeeps has recorded below 1% fall followed by Breweries and Cigarettes with a lesser degree of weakness compared to their counterparts in this sector. Are all the market men having a ball in the bars? Market is weak and traders are rejoicing the multifold gains they made in the past year by partying. This is great news.

This is the power of broad based analysis; it shows the picture of the economy like a movie. The weakest Industry groups for this week are, Sponge Iron, Civil Construction, Plastic and Non-Ferrous Metals. Why is Plastic Industry taking the back seat while Crude Prices are falling? RELIANCE is holding supplies of raw materials for the past 3 weeks creating artificial demand in the market. This is one of the unethical business practices of RELIANCE. Though they make money for their shareholders by manipulating prices. It is not going to stay for long. When any business considers the "CUSTOMER AS KING", our frontrunner on the stock market RELIANCE treats them as slaves. Very soon RELIANCE is likely to pay for its unethical business practices. Scarcity for raw materials in the market has hit production of many manufacturers, this adds to an already weak market demand.

This week's stock calls. Short calls take the lead.

Short

Weekly positions

ACC, below 852, stop 926.

ICICIBANK, below 869, stop 979.80.

IDFC, below 152.50, stop 173.60.

JINDALSTEL, below625.25, stop 753.90.

SAIL, below 201.30, stop 228.60.

SUNPHARMA, below 1516, stop 1690.

TATASTEEL, below 552.45, stop 664.70.

WIPRO, below 631.00, stop 705.00.

HINDPETRO, below 313, stop 347.20.

MUNDRAPORT, below 645.00, stop 768.90.

OFSS, below 2025, stop 2235.10.

SESAGOA, below 368.00, stop 448.40.

Daily Shorts

AXIS, below 1182.20, stop 1251.60.

BANKINDIA, below 343.10, stop 375.50.

FEDBANK, below 276.90, stop 299.05.

Daily Long.

HCLTECH, above 395, stop 388.95.

SBIN, 2292.80, stop 2213.25.

ADANIENT, above563.50, stop 558.80

CANBK, above 436.50, stop 399.95.

INDHOTEL, above 108.15, stop 102.45.

We have herewith given all the signals that come in the NIFTY and NIFTY Jr. Index stocks. These are to be traded on the futures only, as shorts are not permitted on cash market. Hence keep sufficient capital to risk on the stocks. Do not hold more than six open positions at any given time.

Review the stocks using your own scanning methodology; select the best according to your trading psychology and risk apatite and trade accordingly. There are few long calls in the bear market, these are risky bets. If market turns around from here, these stocks would be the leaders.

Trading is a probability game, we have given the high probable selection here, use your judgment and the market moves in your favor. Happy trading.