Monday, November 28, 2011

A bullish divergence on Nifty.

If Nifty manages to close with its MACD histogram having an uptick this week, it will form a classic bullish pattern. There will be a relief rally coming soon, those who were late to exit losing positions or even had missed good target exits in the previous run up, can take the opportunity now to exit long trades.

A bullish pattern on the weekly charts would mean a good move upwards for NIFTY to reach the next resistance close to 5200 levels. For new long trades in the coming rally, it would be prudent to select the strongest Sector, the Strongest Industry in that sector and the best stock from that Industry.

As of today Financial sector is the leading sector ranking number one in the 10 Sectoral indices order. Financial Services is the strongest Sub-Sector in this sector. Term lending Institutions Industry is the best in the Financial Services sub-sector. which ranks 4th among the 137 Industry groups that the economy is divided into at the moment. In this Industry, IDFC is the stock that has the top ranking.

Now we have to check with the stocks chart and its fundamentals, this stock had a 72.21% growth in its EPS over the corresponding quarter of last year. Sales growth is at 50.97%, Net profit margin at 32.05% which amounts to 14.32% growth over its same quarter of the previous year.

The weekly chart of the stock has hit multiple bullish divergences which have failed in the previous attempts to generate a good long trade. In the current bear run, the stock has managed to keep above its previous lows. With the MACD Histogram showing good strength, an uptick in this weeks close would generate a good bullish direction for the stock. In the up move we can expect to have the target at 140-145 zone.

In the days left for this weeks close, we will have the opportunity to follow the best sector every day and have a minimum of 5 stocks to select from, by this week end, for the next bull run, in case the major Market Averages give a bullish direction.

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