1st Quarter results from PSU Banks were so
perfect like all of them had planned and achieved it. All the results that have
come so far have shown between 20-80% drop in profits. Bank of Baroda falls
23%, Oriental Bank 29%, PNB 41% and Dena Bank 81%. But, after this news, all
the stocks had a good rally in their stock prices; this was because estimates
from analysts were showing still higher devastation. When the actuals were a
little better than that was expected, all the shorts in the stocks scrambled
for cover. Always short covering will have a sharp reversal, but, once the
shorts are covered, reality will show up.
Fundamentally these stocks don’t have anything to cheer;
they will take few years before their balance sheets get cleaned up and for
them to show growth that will be greater than others. In this scenario, if
someone wants to invest in PSU Banks, they are sure to have bad times.
Even though these are businesses owned by the government and
are pretty safe, they are not likely to give any comparative returns when
compared to companies that have good growth in their sales and earnings.
Among a basket of stocks that are growth stocks which are in
the mid cap space and those that are owned by the Government and are big ones by numbers, if the former will give us 100%
growth and the later would give flat or negative returns, it is obvious anyone
will prefer growth. Hence, our portfolio does not have even a single Banking
stock.
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